Precarious

Everything is teetering on the edge

It seems like we’re all to desperate for another faint pump or rally even though the environment is not conducive for one. Lets explore why the whole environment is precarious:

The ETHBTC wedge that everyone was so bullish about has broken down on the weekly too. Maybe things reverse but right now it’s no bueno for ETH and alts.

BTC price is still teetering on the short term holder realized price (STHRP) with a biase on the downside. So again we need a bullish reversal above to trigger a positive trend upward.

Nasdaq is usually the most sensitive index to fluctuations in equities. It is teetering on what looks like a textbook H&S pattern.

Whenever real rates rise the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) drops. With the 10Y Treasury trading near 4.8%, the ERP is barely positive. If 10Y rates keep pushing towards 5% ERP will be functionally zero. This means investors have effectively no financial reason to own stocks relative to 10Y Treasury.

If you can kickback, chill and earn almost 5% risk free why would you stress yourself out with stocks and crypto?

Everything looks so precarious innit? Not to mention now there’s also geopolitical issues to consider and how it may affect oil prices which could affect inflation.